![\"Almanya'da](\"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/almanyada-baby-boomer-kusaginin-emekliligiyle-2036ya-kadar-43-milyon-is-gucu-acigi-bekleniyor-1.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Alman Ekonomi Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IW) ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re Almanya’da \u201cBaby Boomer\u201d ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n emeklilik \u00e7a\u011f\u0131na gelmesiyle birlikte, 2036 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda 4,3 milyon ki\u015filik a\u00e7\u0131k ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Alman Ekonomi Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IW), “Baby Boomer Ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 Emeklilik Ya\u015f\u0131na Geliyor” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, gelecek y\u0131llarda istihdama kat\u0131lacak gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun, emekli olacak ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusu kar\u015f\u0131lamaktan \u00e7ok uzak oldu\u011funu ve \u00fclkeyi ciddi bir i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc kriziyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
IW’nin g\u00fcncel n\u00fcfus \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerine g\u00f6re, y\u00fcksek do\u011fum oran\u0131na sahip olan Baby Boomer (1946-1964) ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n son temsilcilerinin de emeklilik ya\u015f\u0131na ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 2036 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfus yakla\u015f\u0131k 4,3 milyon ki\u015fi azalacak.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, Alman i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n daha \u00f6nce tahmin edilenden \u00e7ok daha sert darbe alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. IW, sadece iki y\u0131l \u00f6nce yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminde bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 3 milyon olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin daha karamsar bir hal almas\u0131n\u0131n temel nedeni ise \u00fclke n\u00fcfusunun beklenenden \u00e7ok daha erken k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n
Almanya’da 1946-1964 y\u0131llar\u0131nda do\u011fan ve “Baby Boomer” olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan n\u00fcfus yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon ki\u015fiyi buluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu n\u00fcfusun yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 milyonu 67 ya\u015f s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Geri kalan k\u0131sm\u0131n ise 2036 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar kademeli olarak emekli olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, her y\u0131l i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na sadece 800 bin civar\u0131nda gen\u00e7 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan d\u00e2hil oluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu dengesizlik, piyasan\u0131n her y\u0131l net yar\u0131m milyon potansiyel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131 kaybetmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, 2036 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfus potansiyeli y\u00fczde 7 azalarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 51 milyona gerileyecek.<\/p>\n
– N\u00fcfus beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor<\/p>\n
IW, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki raporunda Almanya n\u00fcfusunun 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar artarak 85 milyona ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak mevcut veriler n\u00fcfusun h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme trendine girdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00dclke n\u00fcfusu, uzun y\u0131llar sonra ilk kez 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda 100 bin ki\u015filik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti.<\/p>\n
2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar ise toplam n\u00fcfusun 82 milyonun alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn arkas\u0131ndaki ana neden, \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fum oranlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k ara geride b\u0131rakmas\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k do\u011fal n\u00fcfus a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde 350 bine ula\u015fmas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llarda bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapatan g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgas\u0131 da son d\u00f6nemde \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde h\u0131z kesmi\u015f durumda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
– “Refah devletini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek zorla\u015facak”<\/p>\n
Geli\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendiren IW istihdam piyasas\u0131 uzman\u0131 Holger Schafer, Almanya’n\u0131n demografik bir de\u011fi\u015fimin e\u015fi\u011finde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, aksine bu s\u00fcrecin tam ortas\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Schafer, “Sadece birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Alman ekonomisi, mevcut refah d\u00fczeyini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek ve sosyal devlet yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcnden yoksun kalacak.” uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu krizin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in iki temel \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm mekanizmas\u0131na dikkati \u00e7eken Schafer, “Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te at\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken ad\u0131mlar\u0131n ilki, mevcut n\u00fcfusun istihdamda daha uzun s\u00fcre kalmas\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etmek; ikincisi ise yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan nitelikli i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc teminini kolayla\u015ft\u0131racak yasal ve b\u00fcrokratik reformlar\u0131 h\u0131zla hayata ge\u00e7irmektir.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alman Ekonomi Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IW) ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re Almanya’da \u201cBaby Boomer\u201d ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n emeklilik \u00e7a\u011f\u0131na gelmesiyle birlikte, 2036 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda 4,3 milyon ki\u015filik a\u00e7\u0131k ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Alman Ekonomi Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IW), “Baby Boomer Ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 Emeklilik Ya\u015f\u0131na Geliyor” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, gelecek y\u0131llarda istihdama kat\u0131lacak gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun, emekli olacak ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusu kar\u015f\u0131lamaktan \u00e7ok uzak …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":134317,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[45743,38647,20499,18109,747,3633,45744,45745,4088,146,478,21208,205],"class_list":["post-134316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","tag-baby","tag-2036ya","tag-20499","tag-acigi","tag-almanyada","tag-bekleniyor","tag-boomer","tag-emekliligiyle","tag-gucu","tag-is","tag-kadar","tag-kusaginin","tag-milyon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134316"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=134316"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134316\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":134319,"href":"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134316\/revisions\/134319"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/134317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=134316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=134316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kibrishost.com\/tak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=134316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}